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| http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HA31Ak02.html
In the past weeks, media reports have speculated that Washington is "thinking
the unthinkable", namely, an aggressive, preemptive nuclear bombardment of Iran,
by either the United States or Israel, to destroy or render useless the deep
underground Iranian nuclear facilities.
The possibility of war against Iran presents a geostrategic and geopolitical
problem of far more complexity than the bombing and occupation of Iraq. And Iraq
has proved complicated enough for the US. We try to identify some of the main
motives of the main actors in the new drama and the outlook for possible war.
The dramatis personae include the Bush administration, most especially the Dick
Cheney-led neo-conservative hawks in control now of not only the Pentagon, but
also the Central Intelligence Agency, the UN ambassadorship and a growing part
of the State Department planning bureaucracy under Condoleezza Rice.
It includes Iran, under the new and outspoken President Mahmud Ahmadinejad. It
includes President Vladimir Putin's Russia, a nuclear-armed veto member of the
UN Security Council. It includes a nuclear-armed Israel, whose acting premier,
Ehud Olmert, recently declared that Israel could "under no circumstances" allow
Iranian development of nuclear weapons "that can threaten our existence". It
includes the European Union, especially Security Council permanent member,
France, and the weakening President Jacques Chirac. It includes China, whose
dependence on Iranian oil and potentially natural gas is large.
Each of these actors has differing agendas and different goals, making the issue
of Iran one of the most complex in recent international politics. What's going
on here? Is a nuclear war, with all that implies for the global financial and
political stability, imminent? What are the possible and even probable outcomes?
Full Story
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HA31Ak02.html
Alan
"Can't you see we're still here,
Can't you see we're still here,
Singing loud; Singing clear,
We shall not go under,
We're still here."
Nemesis Peace Centre
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