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| This year marks the 60-year anniversary of the bombings of Hiroshima and
Nagasaki. Has the world learned anything about the threat of nuclear weapons?
What role can the health community play in reducing it?
Rhona MacDonald
The United States carried out the world's first nuclear test, codenamed
“Trinity,” on 16 July 1945 in the desert of New Mexico. Just three weeks later,
on 6 August, the US exploded a uranium device called “Little Boy” 2,000 feet
above the Japanese city of Hiroshima, killing around 150,000 people. Three days
later, the US deployed a second nuclear bomb, a plutonium device called “Fat
Man,” that exploded above the Japanese city of Nagasaki, resulting in at least
74,000 deaths. These two terrible acts heralded the start of the nuclear age,
which reached its peak during the Cold War.
Sixteen years after the fall of the Berlin wall, symbolising the end of the Cold
War, it is easy to forget the terror that gripped the world over the threat of a
nuclear war that could destroy the planet. But the state of the world at the
60-year anniversary of the bombing of Hiroshima should be enough to shake us
from our complacency, especially considering the number of countries that have
nuclear weapons and haven't signed or ratified the relevant treaties, and the
outcome of the latest review of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) earlier this
year (see below).
Who Has Nuclear Weapons?
Russia, the US, the United Kingdom, France, and China are the only “declared”
nuclear states; that is, they have declared that they have nuclear weapons in
the NPT. But there are also “undeclared” states. Table 1 shows the countries
that have nuclear weapons and how many they have. Box 1 shows the current status
of these countries and in what situation they have indicated they would be
prepared to use their nuclear weapons.
The Crucial Treaties
The NPT
The main objective of the NPT is to stop the spread, or “proliferation,” of
nuclear weapons. The declared nuclear states had to agree not to pass on to
other countries any nuclear weapons technology and, under Article VI, they also
have to “pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to the
cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear
disarmament….” Non-nuclear-weapon states had to promise not to make any attempt
to acquire nuclear weapons. If they complied, in return they could get help to
develop a nuclear power programme. Box 2 shows who has not signed the NPT.
Box 1. Current Status of Nuclear States
UK
*
One of the four Trident submarines is on patrol at all times.
*
The missiles are not targeted (that is they are not aimed at a specific
target) and are normally at several days notice to fire.
*
Accepts a first-use policy. That means that, in certain circumstances, it
is prepared to use nuclear weapons first. Under the Conservative Government
there was a policy of using nuclear weapons to protect Britain's ‘vital
interests’. That policy has never been changed. In the build-up to the Iraq war
in 2003, Defence Secretary Geoff Hoon said that the UK would use nuclear weapons
if its troops were attacked with chemical or biological weapons.
*
The UK opposes a time-bound framework for disarmament. ‘Time-bound’ means
putting deadlines on when agreed things have to be achieved. It also voted
against multilateral negotiations proposed at the UN General Assembly.
France
*
One submarine is on patrol at all times.
*
Although policy is vague, France has never supported ‘no first-use’ and
has said that it would use nuclear weapons to defend its ‘vital interests’.
*
Opposes a time-bound framework and a multilaterally negotiated nuclear
disarmament convention.
US
*
At least ten submarines are on patrol at all times.
*
The Nuclear Posture Review of 2002 gave examples of when the US would use
nuclear weapons first.
*
Opposes multilateral negotiations
*
Opposes including nuclear weapons on the International Court of Justice
list of prohibited weapons.
Russia
*
Estimated that at least two submarines on patrol at all times.
*
Russia has a ‘no first-use’ policy.
*
Supports multilateral negotiations.
China
*
Has a ‘no first-use’ policy and has also said that it would not use
nuclear weapons against a non-nuclear weapon state.
*
Supports a time-bound framework and has called for a convention banning
nuclear weapons.
India
*
Has a ‘no first-use’ policy and has said that it would not use nuclear
weapons against a non-nuclear weapon state.
*
Supports a nuclear weapons convention and sponsors a resolution at the UN
on de-alerting nuclear weapons.
Pakistan
*
Has said that it would use nuclear weapons first in a conflict.
Israel
*
Will not confirm or deny having nuclear weapons.
*
Says that it will not be the first to introduce nuclear weapons into the
Middle East but will not explain exactly what it means by that.
*
Opposes a time-bound framework.
Box text quoted from [5].
The US recently granted India access to its civilian nuclear knowledge in
exchange for a “global partnership.” India is not a signatory of the NPT, so is
not bound by its provisions, and it has always been American foreign policy,
upheld by law, that only countries that are NPT members should share any
benefits of American civilian nuclear expertise, so this is a worrying
development [1].
Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty
After years of negotiations, the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty was
overwhelmingly endorsed in 1996 at the United Nations in New York. To date, it
has been signed by 167 countries and ratified by 99. The Comprehensive Test Ban
Treaty outlaws nuclear testing of any kind and must be signed and ratified by
the 44 countries identified as having nuclear power plants or research reactors.
Ten of those countries have signed but not ratified: Algeria, China, Colombia,
Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Israel, the US, and Viet
Nam. Three have not signed it at all: India, Pakistan, and North Korea [2].
The Seventh Review of the NPT
There was some optimism after the sixth NPT review in May 2000, with the media
reporting that a nuclear-free world was in sight. There were 13 points that all
participant countries agreed to adhere to in time for the next convention (see
Box 3). When the UK's Minister of Defence, Geoff Hoon, said a few months later,
“The NPT agreement is an aspiration; it is not likely to produce results in the
short term” [3], it was a sign of things to come.
This May, after a month of arguments, the seventh NPT review ended in failure.
According to Gunnar Westberg and John Loretz, Co-President and Program Director,
respectively, of International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War
(IPPNW): “At the end of the day, the review collapsed over one issue: the
refusal of the United States to build on the foundations for disarmament that
were laid in 1995 and 2000, or even to acknowledge that those foundations exist”
[4].
Box 2. The NPT
*
The treaty opened for signature in 1968.
*
It entered into force in 1970.
*
A total of 188 countries have signed.
*
India, Pakistan, Israel, Cook Islands, and Niue have not signed.
*
The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea) announced its
withdrawal from the NPT in January 2003.
Source: [2].
They continue: “The Bush administration may attempt to spin the meaning of the
failed NPT review to suit its distaste for multilateral negotiations and for the
UN as an institution. This would be akin to a teenager breaking the lawnmower
and then telling his parents that he can't cut the lawn because the lawnmower
doesn't work. One cannot deliberately break a consensus-based decision making
process and then claim that multilateralism does not work” [4].
Michael Christ, Executive Director of IPPNW, told PLoS Medicine: “The failure of
the 2005 NPT review exposed the underlying realities that stand as obstacles to
achieving a world free of nuclear weapons: firstly, a stubborn refusal by the
nuclear weapon states, particularly the US, to comply with their disarmament
commitments and, conversely, an insistence that nuclear weapons are
indispensable to their security and to the pursuit of their global interests;
secondly, increasing levels of frustration and impatience among
non-nuclear-weapons states, the overwhelming majority of which want nuclear
disarmament; and thirdly, the increasingly unavoidable and dangerous
contradiction between guaranteeing access to ‘peaceful’ uses of nuclear energy
while at the same time ensuring that such uses do not become a platform for
weapons development.”
Where Does That Leave the World in 2005?
In the current climate of increased global terrorism, the aftermath of the war
in Iraq, and the uncertain situation in Iran and North Korea regarding nuclear
weapons, where does the failure of the 2005 NPT review leave us?
Douglas Holdstock from the campaigning organisation Medact, said: “North Korea
may have five to ten usable weapons. It is very unlikely to use them until
directly attacked by the US. Iran will not have usable nuclear weapons for about
five years.”
“The greatest risks of use,” he said, “are probably (1) India and Pakistan over
Kashmir; (2) Israel against any nearby Islamic state, particularly if attacked
by chemical or biological weapons; (3) India and China over border disputes; and
(4) China and the US, for example, over Taiwan. Any of these could kill millions
and cause widespread fallout, but probably not ‘nuclear winter’. This would only
follow a US–Russia exchange, which is a low risk at present—but will remain as
long as nuclear weapons exist.”
Michael Christ explained that about 5,000 US and Russian nuclear weapons are
still on 24-hour hair trigger alert, ready to be launched at a moment's notice:
“These are fallible machines being operated by fallible human beings—and we have
had a number of frighteningly close calls with accidental nuclear war. Our
[IPPNW's] calculations indicate that nearly 7 million Americans would die
immediately from an accidental launch of weapons from a single Russian
submarine. Furthermore, some of the nuclear powers, led by the US, are planning
for a new generation of ‘useable’ battlefield nuclear weapons—‘bunker busters’
and ‘mini-nukes.’”
Gunnar Westberg thinks that having nuclear weapons is contagious: “If Russia and
the USA say they need nuclear weapons for their security, of course smaller
countries will feel the same, with stronger reasons. If the nuclear-weapons
states do not abolish their arsenals, proliferation to many more countries
cannot be stopped.”
The Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament argues that counter-proliferation methods
are replacing the concept of non-proliferation. Ruth Tanner, Press Officer for
the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament UK, said: “The concept of
non-proliferation, as enshrined in the NPT, is under threat from the drive by
the US and UK towards a policy of counter-proliferation, rather than
non-proliferation. Counter-proliferation policies also further undermine the
multilateral non-proliferation regime through its possible substitution—as in
the case of Iraq—by pre-emptive disarmament wars, carried out by a tiny minority
of the international community.”
“Missile defence,” she said, “is clearly part of the counter-proliferation
approach, for it enables first strike without fear of retaliation.”
Impacts on Health
“There are the enormous impacts on health and environment, documented in
numerous studies, resulting from the development, manufacture, testing,
stockpiling, maintenance, transport, dismantling, storage, and disposal of
nuclear weapons,” said Michael Christ. “Every one of these steps poses direct
risks to the health of the personnel involved and the general population. We
[IPPNW] estimated 430,000 deaths worldwide from fatal cancer as a consequence of
US atmospheric nuclear testing, from 1945 to 1963. Nuclear programs worldwide
have left behind a toxic legacy that will affect human health and the
environment for thousands of years. In the US alone, this folly cost taxpayers
$5.5 trillion between 1940 and 1996. And spending is on the rise.”
Box 3. The 2000 NPT Review Conference Final Document
A ‘Programme of Action’ (often referred to as the ‘13 practical steps towards
global nuclear disarmament’) became part of the Final Document. They are
summarised as:
(1) Progress needs to be made on entry-into-force of the Comprehensive Test Ban
Treaty (CTBT).
(2) The moratorium on nuclear weapon test explosions must be maintained.
(3) The Conference on Disarmament (CD) must move forward in establishing a
Fissile Material Cut-Off Treaty (FMCT).
(4) A subsidiary body with a mandate to deal with nuclear disarmament is needed.
(5) The principle of irreversibility on arms control and reduction agreements
must be applied to nuclear disarmament measures.
(6) Progress on nuclear disarmament (implementation of Article VI) is required.
(7) Implementation of arms reduction agreements and pursuit of binding
agreements on further irreversible reductions must be instituted.
(8) Greater emphasis must be attached to the implementation of the Trilateral
Initiative and greater support must be forthcoming for the International Atomic
Energy Agency (IAEA).
(9) Confidence building measures and progressive steps to lower the nuclear
threshold must be offered. [These include increased effort by the NWS to reduce
their nuclear arsenals unilaterally; increased transparency by the NWS about
their nuclear weapons capability; further reductions of non-strategic nuclear
weapons; a reduction in the operational status of nuclear weapons (de-alerting);
a diminished role for nuclear weapons in security policies (doctrines); and the
engagement of all NWS in facilitating the elimination of nuclear weapons.]
(10) Further fissile material stocks must be put under IAEA Safeguards.
(11) The ultimate objective of complete nuclear disarmament must be reaffirmed.
(12) The formal reporting back by States Parties between Review Conferences— the
accountability principle—must be instituted.
(13) Enhanced verification measures must be agreed and implemented.
Box text quoted from [6].
He explained what IPPNW is doing to publicise the threat of nuclear weapons: “We
are emphasizing the medical and moral imperative of nuclear disarmament. We must
stigmatize nuclear weapons not on the basis of who owns them but for what they
are and what they can do. These are not weapons at all—they are instruments of
indiscriminate mass murder. They are Nazi crematoria mounted on missiles.”
The world's major health problems are all related, and are ultimately affected
by how much money is spent on weapons, according to Douglas Holdstock: “Poverty,
under-development, disease, [and] war, which [are] fuelled by the arms trade,
climate change, and other environmental threats, such as over-population, are
all inter-linked.” And reducing nuclear and other arms spending will free
resources for better causes, he said.
What Can International Health-Care Workers Do?
Michael Christ reminds us what is at stake: “We are moving inexorably towards a
major nuclear disaster of some form, and the medical dangers are just too
profound to ignore for those concerned about and responsible for public health.”
He continued: “The heart of the problem is a lack of political will to rid the
world of the only weapons that could extinguish most life on earth in a matter
of hours. Creating that political will is our focus for the future.”
Douglas Holdstock said, “[Nobel Peace Laureate] Sir Joseph Rotblat says that to
prevent nuclear war we must prevent all war, as the knowledge of how to make
nuclear weapons will indeed always be with us. Rotblat ended his Nobel Prize
acceptance speech by saying, ‘remember your humanity.’”
“At this difficult and dangerous time it is vital that we work for peace in the
world,” said Ruth Tanner. “Nuclear weapons are a threat to the planet and its
people and the rogue states that insist on maintaining their destructive arsenal
are a minority in a world that wants to be free of nuclear weapons.”
“The NPT is still valid,” said Gunnar Westberg. “A strong international movement
for a nuclear weapons convention, prohibiting nuclear weapons, is needed, and
may be developing just now. It may work along the pattern of the Campaign to Ban
Landmines.”
He continued: “We [physicians] are used to talking to people about questions of
life and death. So we must tell the general public that nuclear weapons are the
greatest threat to the survival of mankind, and the only intervention that will
work is the complete abolition of all nuclear weapons. Now is the time to do
this, in this period of low tension between the big powers, and before nuclear
weapons proliferate to many more countries.”
“Nuclear weapons and mankind,” he added, “can in the long run not coexist.
Either will be abolished. We have a choice.”
Conclusion
The world is in turmoil: terrorism, or at least the fear of terrorism, seems to
have a stranglehold; world governments and the United Nations have an arbitrary
way of dealing with “rogue states” (notice, for example, the differences in
their treatment of Iraq, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Zimbabwe, and
Myanmar); and international treaties can be broken on a whim, such as the recent
deal in which the US agreed to share its civilian nuclear knowledge with India.
Now is not the time to be gambling with the world's future and that of the human
race by holding on to weapons that could destroy the planet thousands of times
over. The countries that continue to have such weapons are potential destroyers,
not the guardians of democracy, or the defenders of peace, or whatever they
choose to call themselves. Democracy should be better than this.
Useful Links
International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War: www.ippnw.org
Medact: www.medact.org
Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament: www.cnduk.org
WMD Awareness Programme: www.comeclean.org.uk
British American Security Information Council: www.basicint.org
References
1. [Anonymous] (2005 July 23) India and America: Now we are six. The
Economist 13.
2. WMD Awareness Programme (2005) Nuclear weapons: Treaties. London: WMD
Awareness Programme. Available:
http://www.comeclean.org.uk/articles.php?articleID=21. Accessed 1 August 2005.
3. Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament (2005 July) Rejecting the logic of
‘counter-proliferation’: Disarmament is the key to global peace and security.
London: Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament. Available:
http://www.cnduk.org/pages/campaign/NPT05.pdf. Accessed 27 July 2005.
4. Westburg G, Loretz J (2005 June 21) A case of global medical malpractice.
Cambridge (Massachusetts): International Physicians for the Prevention of
Nuclear War. Available: http://www.ippnw.org/NPT2005WestbergLoretz.html.
Accessed 27 July 2005.
5. WMD Awareness Programme (2005) Nuclear weapons: Nuclear policy. London:
WMD Awareness Programme. Available:
http://www.comeclean.org.uk/articles.php?articleID=25. Accessed 1 August 2005.
6. British American Security Information Council Oxford Research Group (2005
January) The Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference: Breakthrough or bust in
'05? London: British American Security Information Council. Available:
http://www.basicint.org/nuclear/NPT...ptoverview.htm. Accessed 27 July
2005.
7. WMD Awareness Programme (2005) Nuclear weapons: Who has nuclear weapons?
London: WMD Awareness Programme. Available:
http://www.comeclean.org.uk/articles.php?articleID=22. Accessed 1 August 2005.
The Original Article Can Be Found Here:
http://medicine.plosjournals.org/pe...oi=10.1371/jour
nal.pmed.0020301
Alan
http://www.veloceraptor.free-online.co.uk/science.html
http://veloceraptor.blogspot.com/
http://theoriginalfirebird.blogspot.com/
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http://www.stopwar.org.uk/
http://www.700women.org/
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