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Home > Archive > HIV Aids > December 2006 > AIDS one of 3
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Nov 27, 8:56 PM (ET)
By MARIA CHENG
LONDON (AP) - Within the next 25 years, AIDS is set to join heart disease and stroke as the top
three causes of death worldwide, according to a study published online Monday.
When global mortality projections were last calculated a decade ago, researchers had assumed
the number of AIDS cases would be declining. Instead, it's on the rise.
Currently ranked fourth behind heart disease, stroke, and respiratory infections, AIDS is set
to become No. 3, say researchers in a new report in the Public Library of Science's Medicine
journal. It accounts for about 2.8 million deaths every year. But the researchers estimate a
total of nearly 120 million people could die in the next 25 years.
Overall, the researchers predict that in three decades, the causes of global mortality will be
strikingly similar worldwide - apart from the prevalence of AIDS in poorer countries. Most
people will be dying at older ages of noninfectious diseases like cardiovascular disease,
stroke and cancer.
The paper by Dr. Colin Mathers and Dejan Loncar of the World Health Organization estimates that
at a total of least 117 million people will die from AIDS from 2006 to 2030. In an optimistic
future projection, if new HIV infections are curbed and access to life-prolonging
antiretrovirals is increased, 89 million people will die from the disease.
"What happens in the future depends very much on what the international community does now,"
Mathers said.
These marked differences should spark changes in current approaches to controlling AIDS now,
say some experts.
"It will be increasingly hard to sustain treatment programs unless we can turn off the tap of
new HIV infections," said Dr. Richard Hays, professor of epidemiology at London's School of
Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, who was not linked to the study. "These AIDS numbers point to a
need to do more in prevention."
Simply focusing on treatment or politically uncontroversial prevention methods will not
suffice. "You can't put all your eggs in the abstinence basket," said Hays. "We need a menu of
strategies for real people," he said, adding that condom distribution as well as new methods,
such as a vaccine, are needed.
Mathers and Loncar analyzed data from more than 100 countries. The authors looked at the links
between mortality trends and income per capita, as well as factors including education levels
and tobacco use. Their research also used U.N. estimates for projected AIDS infection rates and
the World Bank's numbers for future income per capita.
Mathers and Loncar then took all of this information and plugged it into a complex modeling
equation to predict the top future causes of death and disease.
"This is an important contribution that will help us determine the priorities in public
health," said Dr. Majid Ezzati, an associate professor of international health at Harvard
University, who was not connected to the paper.
While it may be possible to avert some of the impending damage from HIV/AIDS, Mathers says that
other predictions are unlikely to vary significantly.
As populations age, he explains, they are naturally more susceptible to illnesses like cancer
and heart disease than from infectious diseases - even in the developing world. Life expectancy
is expected to increase worldwide, with the highest projected life expectancy in 2030 to be in
Japanese women, at 88.5 years.
Mathers and Loncar speculate that by 2030, cancer deaths will jump from 7.1 million in 2002 to
11.5 million. The number of deaths from cardiovascular disease is expected to rise from 16.7
million in 2002 to 23.3 million in 2030. Overall, they expect non-communicable diseases to
account for 70 percent of all deaths globally, up from 59 percent in 2002.
Though economic development may bring better health care, it also has an unfortunate side
effect: more road accidents. Based on rates of increasing car ownership, the World Bank
estimates that traffic fatalities will increase globally by 66 percent by 2020. This might be
avoided, Mathers says, if developing countries learn from the experience of developed
countries, where laws and improved safety practices have sharply cut the numbers of
road-related deaths.
Knowing the likely causes of future mortality allows policymakers to attempt to improve the
expected outcome. While Mathers and Loncar are unable to account for unforeseen events such as
the emergence of new deadly diseases or major outbreaks like a flu pandemic, their projections
may help to set the agenda of global health.
"I hope this paper inspires change," said Mathers. "And I hope our pessimistic projections turn
out to be wrong."
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" Death" <Death@yourdoor.net> wrote in message
news:RgXah.13044$SV4.9895@bignews3.bellsouth.net...
>
> Nov 27, 8:56 PM (ET)
>
> By MARIA CHENG
>
> LONDON (AP) - Within the next 25 years, AIDS is set to join heart disease
> and stroke as the top
> three causes of death worldwide, according to a study published online
> Monday.
>
> When global mortality projections were last calculated a decade ago,
> researchers had assumed
> the number of AIDS cases would be declining. Instead, it's on the rise.
This, of course, is bull puckey - designed to incite FEAR -
which, of course, has proven to be a poor motivator
and unlikely to result in long-term benefits of any
kind whatsoever.
Fact is, if HIV was so infective, most of those who have
had an orgasm in the past 20 years would be dead by now...
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"Life" <Life@life.com> wrote in message
>
> " Death" <Death@yourdoor.net> wrote in message
>
> This, of course, is bull puckey - designed to incite FEAR -
> which, of course, has proven to be a poor motivator
> and unlikely to result in long-term benefits of any
> kind whatsoever.
>
>
No that was to incite FIAR- which, of course, has proven to
be a poor motivator and unlikely to result in long- term benefits
of any kind what-so-ever.
I think you misunderstood the message in the article.
faggots are living longer and in turn, infect more faggots.
The cycle is not slowing as calculated.
When someone says they have a cold,
you back up with your open hand shielding yourself.
When someone says they have aids, well ok- so long as you
don't have a cold- I guess it will be ok to XXXX me in the XXX.
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" Death" <Death@yourdoor.net> wrote in message
news:Gm0bh.20112$Q7.12697@bignews6.bellsouth.net...
>
> "Life" <Life@life.com> wrote in message
>
> No that was to incite FIAR- which, of course, has proven to
> be a poor motivator and unlikely to result in long- term benefits
> of any kind what-so-ever.
Tell that to the folks at Paypal who help George Mary Carter
fit those condoms over the peckers of all them Nepalese
Sherpas!
Safe Sherpasex... not for the faint of heart!
> I think you misunderstood the message in the article.
> faggots are living longer and in turn, infect more faggots.
> The cycle is not slowing as calculated.
That's the problem with FEAR and FIAR - George Mary Carter
is the ultimate example of why faggots must find a way out
before the clock strikes midnight and they turn from
Twinkie Size Queens into UnXXXXable Trolls.
> When someone says they have aids, well ok- so long as you
> don't have a cold- I guess it will be ok to XXXX me in the XXX.
That depends on the size of their dick.
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| GMCarter 2006-12-06, 9:27 pm |
| On Fri, 1 Dec 2006 13:50:45 -0500, "Life" <Life@life.com> wrote:
>
snip
>before the clock strikes midnight and they turn from
>Twinkie Size Queens into UnXXXXable Trolls.
So THAT'S what happened to you. Oh, I'm so sorry, dear little frodlet.
But you're right, it does explain a lot of why you are such a vicious
old queen, doesn't it?
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"GMCarter" <fiar@verizon.net> wrote in message
news:e0v0n25svu9j8io3vb9i4q0gai37lhuaqk@4ax.com...
> On Fri, 1 Dec 2006 13:50:45 -0500, "Life" <Life@life.com> wrote:
>
> snip
> So THAT'S what happened to you.
Nope. Let's review...
That's the problem with FEAR and FIAR - George Mary Carter
is the ultimate example of why faggots must find a way out
before the clock strikes midnight and they turn from
Twinkie Size Queens into UnXXXXable Trolls.
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| GMCarter 2006-12-06, 9:27 pm |
| On Fri, 1 Dec 2006 13:50:45 -0500, "Life" <Life@life.com> wrote:
>
snip
>before the clock strikes midnight and they turn from
>Twinkie Size Queens into UnXXXXable Trolls.
So THAT'S what happened to you. Oh, I'm so sorry, dear little frodlet.
But you're right, it does explain a lot of why you are such a vicious
old queen, doesn't it?
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